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Author: CFG Africa Team

CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 28042025

Dangote refinery denies shutting petrol processing unit for repairs – The Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki, Lagos State, has denied shutting down its petrol processing unit for maintenance. A senior spokesperson at the company told The PUNCH on Sunday that “loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) is ongoing as we speak.” A report by Bloomberg had said the fuel unit was undergoing repairs and had to be shut down pending the completion of the exercise. It said the gasoline-making unit at the Dangote refinery was being repaired. “A large fuel-production unit at Nigeria’s Dangote oil refinery is undergoing maintenance,” Bloomberg reports, quoting a person familiar with the matter….(Read More)  NGX gains N966bn in holiday-shortened week – The Nigerian Exchange Limited gained N966bn in market capitalisation, buoyed by improved investor sentiment and positive movements in key banking and consumer goods stocks. The market opened for four trading days following the Easter celebrations, after the Federal Government declared Friday, April 18, and Monday, April 21, 2025, as public holidays. At the close of trading activities on Friday, the All-Share Index rose by 1.46 per cent to close at 105,752.61 points, while market capitalisation appreciated by 1.47 per cent to settle at N66.465tn, compared to N65.499tn recorded at the end of the previous week…………(Read More)  Nigeria’s debt servicing costs rise to N8.9tn – Report – Nigeria’s debt servicing costs have surged to N8.9tn in the first nine months of 2024, surpassing the pro-rata budget of N6.2tn. In a recent report by Afrinvest, this increase is driven by the country’s rising debt profile, which ballooned from N97.3tn at the end of 2023 to N144.7tn in 2024. The N8.9tn spent on servicing debt in the period represents a significant 58.3 per cent of the nation’s total revenue, placing significant strain on fiscal resources. According to Afrinvest, the massive debt servicing burden, coupled with recurrent expenditure obligations, has limited the funds available…..(Read More) FG’s safety nets face setback on oil price slide – The World Bank said in its Africa Pulse report entitled ‘Improving Governance and Delivering for People in Africa’ that various safety nets targeted at easing the burden of the citizens may not be enough to lift millions off the poverty line. It predicted that Nigeria may likely see a rise in the levels of poverty over the next two years despite a moderate economic growth forecast. The multilateral lender noted that while non-resource-rich countries are expected to continue reducing poverty and grow faster, resource-rich countries like Nigeria may drag due to declining oil prices……….(Read More) GTCO shareholders approve N8.03 dividend payout –  Shareholders of Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) Plc have approved the payment of a total dividend of N8.03 per share for the financial year ending December 31, 2024. This decision was taken at the company’s fourth annual general meeting, which was held virtually on Thursday. The company had previously paid an interim dividend of N1 per share and would now make an additional N7.03 per share bringing the total dividend for the 2024 financial year to N8.03 per share. Chairman of GTCO, Mr Hezekiah Sola Oyinlola, emphasized the group’s ability to remain agile and forward-thinking, which has allowed the company to achieve record-breaking performances… (Read More) Asian shares inch higher as uncertainty over US tariffs persists – Asian markets inched higher in cautious trading on Monday as investors watched to see what may come of negotiations over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. U.S. futures fell and oil prices were little changed. Shares in China fell despite more efforts by Beijing to boost the economy, as uncertainty persisted over the status of any talks between Washington and Beijing. The president says he’s actively negotiating with the Chinese government on tariffs — while the Chinese and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have said talks have yet to start…..(Read More)

CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 23042025

Currency in circulation drops to N5tn – Report –  The total amount of naira in circulation decreased to N5tn as of March 2025, marking a decline from N5.04tn recorded in February 2025. This represents a further reduction from N5.24tn in January 2025, according to the latest money and credit statistics on the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Naira in circulation is the total amount of physical currency circulating in the economy, representing money that is available for daily transactions, investments, and savings. A decrease in currency in circulation can be part of efforts to reduce inflationary pressures and manage economic stability….(Read More)  Nigeria’s rebased inflation to hit 37% in 2026 – IMF – Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to rise sharply to 37 per cent in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund, which issued the forecast in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday. The IMF said the new projection follows the rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2025, and warned that persistent price pressures and structural constraints would likely keep inflation elevated over the medium term. According to the Fund, inflation, which averaged 33.2 per cent in 2024, is expected to moderate slightly to 26.5 per cent in 2025 before surging to 37.0 per cent the following year……….(Read More)  NGX posts N318bn gain after Easter break – The Nigerian Stock Exchange market capitalisation rose by N318bn after resuming trading following the Easter break. The market ended the day’s session with a total market value of N65.8tn, an increase of 0.49 per cent compared to the previous trading day. The All-Share Index has gained 1.77 per cent year-to-date, with a slight 0.17 per cent rise over the past week, but a 0.16 per cent drop in the last four weeks. A total of 353,283,914 shares, valued at N7.2bn, were traded across 13,734 deals. While there was a 6 per cent drop in volume and a nine per cent decrease in turnover compared to the previous session, the number of deals surged by 23 per cent….(Read More) 60m barrels of crude oil unsold as local refineries suffer low supply – There is no end in sight to the challenges faced by local refineries in sourcing crude oil with more than 60 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil said to be reportedly stranded and unsold, documents sighted by Daily Trust revealed. The crude oil is said to be floating in the high seas while local refineries continue to struggle amidst low crude supply locally. Inside sources raised concern over the challenges faced by local refineries despite warning by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) that crudes meant for domestic refineries should not be exported. The NUPRC Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe in a letter dated 2 February 2025, warned oil firms that crude designated for domestic refining must not be exported……..(Read More) IMF Lowers Nigeria’s 2025 Growth Forecast To 3.0% On Weakening Oil Price –  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward Nigeria’s economic growth projections for 2025 and 2026, to 3.0 for 2025 and 2.7 for 2026 as global uncertainties grow and sustained weaknesses in oil prices impact the country’s economy. This is as it sees a growing probability of a recession from per cent in October to 40 per cent. The World Economic Outlook (WEO), for April released on Tuesday projected a slowing in global growth with Nigeria growth cut from 3.2 per cent and 3.0 per cent for 2025 and 2026 in the January issue of the WEO. The Fund attributed the downgrade to a mix of domestic challenges and worsening global conditions, including trade tensions, slowing demand from advanced economies, and a sharp decline in crude oil prices….…(Read More) Biggest US retailers, Walmart and Target, meet Trump over tariffs and bad US business – According to Bloomberg, President Donald Trump held a high-level meeting with American retailers on Monday. Retail businesses are grappling with the economic downturn caused by tariffs. Walmart Inc., Target Corp., Home Depot Inc., and Lowe’s Cos. executives were present at the White House to discuss alleviating trade tensions. The gathering came after a 90-day pause in Trump’s implementation of levies on imports from several trading partners, a window that foreign leaders and US corporations alike are using to renegotiate more favorable trade conditions. Retailers have been some of the hardest hit by Trump’s trade policies, particularly due to their reliance on global supply chains….(Read More)

CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 22042025

NNPCL sells N336bn crude to Dangote, foreign refiners – Report-  The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited generated N336.37bn from crude oil sales in the first quarter of 2025, with Dangote Petroleum Refinery accounting for over 32 per cent of the transactions, according to findings by The PUNCH. The details were contained in internal documents from the NNPCL, submitted at the Federation Account Allocation Committee meetings, and obtained by The PUNCH on Monday. The documents showed that crude supplies to Dangote refinery amounted to N107.44bn within the three-month period. The crude was sold at unit prices ranging from $74.87 to $80.34 per barrel, using exchange rates between N1,501.22/$ and N1,562.91/$……(Read More) Marketers decry losses as NNPC drops petrol price to N880/litre – Petroleum product marketers on Monday lamented their losses as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reduced the price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) to N880 per litre in Lagos and N935 in Abuja. From N925, some NNPC retail outlets in Lagos changed their pump price to N880 on Easter Monday, while those in Abuja adjusted from N950 to N935. The NNPC price reduction came barely a week after the Dangote refinery lowered its ex-depot price from N865 to N835 per litre. The $20bn refinery also directed its partners like MRS, Heyden, and Ardova to sell a litre of petrol at the rate of N890 instead of N920 in Lagos, N900 in the Southwest, N910 in the South-South, and N920 in the Northeast………(Read More) Dollar slides to lowest point since March 2022 – The US dollar depreciated on Monday to its lowest point since March 2022 as investor confidence in the United States economy took another hit. According to Reuters, the dollar suffered a decline due to President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar slid as low as 97.923 on Monday. The currency also fell to a decade-low against the Swiss franc, while the euro broke above $1.15, its highest since November 2021. Sterling rose to its highest since September at $1.34 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar scaled a four-month high of $0.6430. The New Zealand dollar reclaimed the $0.6000 level for the first time in more than five months…….(Read More) Experts caution FG amidst IMF report on Nigeria’s economic uncertainty – Economic experts have reacted to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggesting Nigeria’s economic outlook is marked by significant uncertainty. While agreeing with the report, experts called for a proactive step on the part of the government to hedge against the uncertainty triggered by declining oil prices and the ongoing tariff war. The IMF had hinged its report on “elevated global risk sentiment and lower oil prices” which, it noted, impact the Nigerian economy. The IMF’s statement was the observation of its staff who recently completed their 2025 Article IV Mission to Nigeria……(Read More) Indonesia May Reduce Oil, Gas Imports from Nigeria –  Indonesia is set to propose increasing its imports of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas from the United States by around $10 billion and reducing imports from other countries as part of its tariff negotiations, Energy Minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, has said. A Reuters report quoted Kpler data as showing Indonesia imported 217,000 barrels per day of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) last year, around 124,000 bpd of which came from the US. Indonesia also imported around 306,000 bpd crude oil last year, with Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Angola as the top suppliers, Kpler data showed. Around 13,000 bpd were imported from the US. Around 23,000 bpd were imported from Qatar, while the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia each contributed around 20,000 bpd……(Read More) Trump approval rating dips: many wary of his wielding of power, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds – President Donald Trump’s public approval rating edged down to its lowest level since his return to the White House, as Americans showed signs of wariness over his efforts to broaden his power, a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday found. Some 42% of respondents to the six-day poll approved of Trump’s performance as president, down from 43% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted three weeks earlier, and from 47% in the hours after his January 20 inauguration. The start of Trump’s term has left his political opponents stunned as he has signed dozens of executive orders expanding his influence over both government departments and over private institutions such as universities and law firms…..(Read More)

CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 17042025

NGX reverses gains as investors lose N445bn – The Nigerian Exchange reversed previous gains on Wednesday, April 16, as investors lost N445bn following a widespread decline in banking stocks, especially Guaranty Trust Holding Company and Zenith Bank. At the close of trading, the All-Share Index dropped by 708.14 points, representing a 0.68 per cent decline, to settle at 103,851.88 points. This downward movement also dragged the overall market capitalisation from N65.7 tn to N65.3 tn, reflecting a N445 bn loss in value. The decline in the market was primarily driven by sharp sell-offs in top-tier banks. Guaranty Trust Holding Company recorded the worst performance on the losers’ chart with an 11.94 per cent drop to close at N59.00 per share. Zenith Bank followed closely with an 11.65 per cent dip to close at N44.00 per share…..(Read More)  N800/litre petrol in sight as oil prices tumble – The drop in crude oil prices and the resumption of the naira-for-crude arrangement for local refiners may push the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) further down to about N800 per litre in the coming weeks or months, oil marketers and industry analysts said on Wednesday. This comes as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-depot price for PMS to N835 per litre, its second downward adjustment in less than seven days. The industry players, however, pointed out that the N800 per litre price could be achieved if crude drops further to $50 per barrel and marketers depend less on foreign exchange to buy products. Brent, the global benchmark for crude, was about $65 per barrel on Wednesday……..(Read More)  Fitch projects Nigeria’s external debt service to hit $5.2bn in 2025 – Fitch, a global rating agency, has projected that Nigeria’s external debt service bill will increase to $5.2 billion this year. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s external debt service was $1.07 billion as of December 2024. In its rating commentary on Nigeria, published on April 11, the credit rating firm said the service bill would rise further in 2025. “Government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to USD5.2 billion in 2025 (with USD4.5 billion of amortisations, including a USD1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from USD4.7 billion in 2024, and fall to USD3.5 billion in 2026,” Fitch said. Nigeria’s debt payments are growing much bigger this year…..(Read More) Access Holdings posts N642.2bn profit – Access Holdings Plc recorded a profit after tax of N642.2bn for the financial year ended December 31, 2024. This marked a four per cent increase from the N619.3bn reported in 2023. The group’s audited financial statement released on the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Wednesday showed that Access Holdings’ gross earnings jumped by 88 per cent to N4.88 tn in 2024, up from N2.59 tn in 2023. Additionally, profit before tax for the period stood at N867.0bn, representing a 19 per cent rise from N729.0bn in 2023. This was achieved despite an increase in operating expenses and impairment charges. Meanwhile, the group’s income tax expenses also rose sharply…..(Read More) African private capital falls to $1.6bn as mega deals shrink — Report –  Africa’s private capital market started 2025 on a quieter note, as the total disclosed deal value dropped significantly to $1.6 billion in the first quarter of the year, according to a new report. Data from Stears’s latest Private Capital in Africa Activity Report disclosed that this is a stark contrast to the $4.7 billion recorded in Q4 2024. “The drop in transaction value primarily reflects a shift in deal size composition, with investors moving away from mega transactions (valued above $75 million) towards more moderately sized large deals (ranging from $25 million to $75 million),” it said. Despite the value dip, deal activity remained strong, with 105 transactions tracked during the quarter broadly in line with the 106 transactions in the previous quarter and markedly higher than the 88 recorded in Q1 2024..…(Read More) China calls US extortionate tariff hikes ‘numbers game’ – Denouncing the use of tariffs as a “weapon” to “coerce and bully others,” Beijing on Thursday said the latest 245% levies on the Chinese imports by the US have become a “numbers game.” “You should probably ask the US side as to how they arrived at that figure,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement in response to the White House’s latest tariffs hike on Chinese imports. “The US’ extortionate tariff hikes on China have become a numbers game, which economically does not make much actual difference anymore, except further demonstrating how the US weaponizes tariff to coerce and bully others,” the ministry said. The White House in a fact sheet Tuesday mentioned that Chinese imports face a maximum 245% tariffs….(Read More)

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