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CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 22/09/2025

Falling inflation fuels hopes for monetary policy easing – Analysts have projected that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria would be considering a 50-75 bps rate cut as they begin their meeting on Monday (today). The anticipated rate cut is driven by the steady decline in headline inflation, which, according to the National Bureau of Statistics reports, fell to 20.12 per cent in August 2025, from 21.88 per cent in July, while food inflation also eased year-on-year. This trend strengthens expectations for rate cuts. This decline marked the fifth month of deceleration of inflation, thus drawing optimism that the MPC would give thought to cutting the rate………(Read More) Union-imposed truck charges cause fuel price hikes – Dangote – Africa’s richest man and the President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has accused the Nigerian Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers of collecting as much as N50,000 on every truck that loads fuel at the refinery, warning that such charges ultimately push up fuel pump prices and burden consumers. While NUPENG neither confirmed nor denied the allegation, industry experts on Sunday wondered how the oil union became a tax collector, stressing that such actions would definitely raise the pump prices of refined petroleum products……….(Read More) External reserves hit $42bn amidst rise in hydrocarbon revenue – Nigeria’s gross external reserves hit $42 billion last week, the highest level seen since September 2019 with analysts attributing the boost to inflows across different sources. In September, total inflows into external reserves reached $692.28 million, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Hydrocarbon export revenue contributed to reserves accretion with analysts saying the positive trend would continue for a while and contribute to boosting investors’ confidence……..(Read More) Crude supply to domestic refineries hit 67.6m barrels – FG – The Federal Government has disclosed that a total of 67,657,559 barrels of crude oil were supplied to local refiners for processing between January and August 2025. This figure, confirmed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, highlights ongoing challenges in bridging the crude allocation gap facing indigenous refineries despite Nigeria’s rising production levels. Speaking in Abuja on Sunday, the Head of Media and Strategic Communications at the NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, said the crude allocation was made in line with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation policy………..(Read More) Crude oil production drops to 1.43 million barrels in August – Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped to A  1.43 million barrels per day in the month of August, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has stated. In a statement,  the regulatory agency for the upstream petroleum sector said daily condensate production in August stood at 197,229 bpd, all amounting to 1.63 million barrels. It states that crude oil figure means the country achieved 96% of its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota…….(Read More) Indian IT stocks crash as Trump’s $100K H-1B visa fee sparks market turmoil – Indian IT stocks slumped on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced an overhaul of the H-1B visa programme, imposing a hefty $100,000 fee on new applications. The surprise move threatens to upend the long-standing outsourcing model that Indian IT majors rely on to serve their biggest market. Shares of Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra led sharp declines, as investors worried about rising operational costs and shrinking margins. The selloff underscored how vulnerable India’s export-driven IT sector remains to regulatory shocks from Washington, even as firms have tried to reduce their reliance on the controversial visa route over recent years…………(Read More)

CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 17/09/2025

Dangote targets global leadership in fertiliser exports – President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has declared that Nigeria is on track to become a global powerhouse in fertiliser and petrochemicals, with his company targeting the position of world’s largest exporter of urea fertiliser by 2026. Dangote made the disclosure on Monday while briefing journalists at the Dangote Refinery complex in Lagos, during an event marking the one-year anniversary of the refinery’s gasoline rollout…….(Read More)  NGX sheds N71bn as stock market declines – The Nigerian Exchange closed Tuesday’s trading session on a negative note as the equities market shed about N71bn in market capitalisation, following losses recorded in several bellwether stocks. At the close of trading, the All-Share Index fell by 112.22 points, or 0.08 per cent, to settle at 141,546.78 basis points compared with 141,659.00 points recorded in the previous session. The market capitalisation also declined from N89.671tn to N89.600tn, representing a loss of N71bn for investors…….(Read More) Reforms in oil & gas attracted $18bn investments in 9 months – NUPRC- The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, has stated that competitive reforms introduced in the oil and gas sector has led to 28 Field Development Plans with $18.2bn worth of investment commitments, which underscores the attractiveness of the upstream sector. In a statement, Komolafe said these commitments are also expected to unlock 1.4 billion barrels of oil and 5.4 TCF of gas, adding an expected 591,000 barrels of oil per day and 2.1 BSCFD of gas, boosting the country’s aspiration to deliver over 3 million barrels per day crude oil production…….(Read More) CBN sets six-month deadline for successor bank chiefs – The Central Bank of Nigeria has issued a fresh directive compelling all Domestic Systemically Important Banks to obtain regulatory approval for the appointment of successor managing directors at least six months before the exit of incumbent chief executives. In addition, the apex bank ordered that such appointments must be made public no later than three months before the outgoing CEO officially vacates office. The policy shift is part of broader efforts to strengthen corporate governance, reduce uncertainty, and preserve confidence in Nigeria’s financial system……..(Read More) First shipment of petrol from Dangote refinery lands in US  In what was described as a major development in the global energy markets, the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals has successfully exported its first shipment of gasoline to the United States. Commodities giant Vitol and North American distributor Sunoco are said to be taking delivery this week—marking a new chapter in Africa’s role as an emerging fuel exporter. The tanker Gemini Pearl delivered approximately 320,000 barrels of gasoline to Sunoco’s terminal in Linden, New Jersey, on Monday, according to Reuters……….(Read More) Dollar languishes, gold glitters as Fed verdict looms large – The dollar was on the defensive, shares edged up and gold scaled new heights on Wednesday as global markets counted down to an anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the day and waited on signals around the extent of future easing. The euro surged to a four-year high against the greenback in the prior session on the Fed easing bets, while oil remained firm following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and ports. Asian equity indexes were led by Hong Kong shares, which surged to a four-year high………..(Read More)

CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 15/09/2025

Grid collapse, debts crippling power plants – GenCos – The Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Joy Ogaji, has kicked against threats to disconnect generation companies from the national grid, warning that unstable transmission and market failures are damaging their plants and deepening losses. The GenCos also demanded regulations mandating the immediate payment of their revenue by offtakers…..(Read More) FX stability may drive inflation decline further – Report –Ahead of the release of the August inflation data, Coronation Asset Management, in its inflation outlook, has projected a continued decline driven by foreign exchange stability and the harvest season. The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to publish the inflation report for August on Monday (today), with inflation expected to continue to decelerate and hit five months of dips. Nigeria’s inflation rate declined for the fourth consecutive month in July 2025, settling at 21.88 per cent year-on-year…….(Read More) Dangote deploys 1,000 fuel distribution trucks, IPMAN rallies marketers – The Dangote Petroleum Refinery will today (Monday) roll out over 1,000 Compressed Natural Gas-powered trucks to begin the first phase of its direct fuel distribution scheme. Consequently, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria has said it is ready to receive Dangote trucks at its various stations. Officials at the Dangote refinery told The PUNCH that the direct distribution would begin as part of activities marking one year since the refinery started petrol production…….(Read More) Direct fuel supply will save us N1.5 trn – Dangote Refinery –Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals yesterday reiterated that its decision to adopt direct fuel distribution, which is being flagged off today, was to reduce dependency on third-party carriers for fuel distribution in Nigeria. It stated that the move is not only a matter of strategic choice but a national imperative. The refinery, which also reacted to recent claims by the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), accused the marketers’ association of making attempts to frustrate the operation of the refinery.…..(Read More) ‘Shea Nut Export Ban Hurts Farmers’ Livelihoods, Investor Confidence’ – Nigeria’s six-month ban on raw shea nut exports has sparked concerns over market disruptions, with shea nut prices plummeting by over 30 per cent and existing export contracts facing potential default, says the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). The director-general of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf stated this yesterday, adding that, the federal government’s six-month ban on raw shea nut exports is intended to accelerate domestic value addition and support Nigeria’s industrialization drive…….(Read More) Exclusive: US Democrats press Trump for a trade deal that curbs China’s production –  U.S. Democrats have asked the Trump administration to press China to curb “structural overproduction”, essentially overhauling Beijing’s economic model, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holds talks with Chinese officials in Spain. Democratic members of a House of Representatives committee on China said any bilateral trade deal should include “binding requirements” on Beijing to reduce industrial overcapacity, according to a letter they sent to Bessent and other top trade officials on Friday and seen by Reuters………(Read More)

CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 10/09/2025

FIRS taps EFCC to enforce tax compliance – The Federal Inland Revenue Service has said that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission is key in its drive to enforce voluntary tax compliance. According to a statement from the service on Tuesday, the FIRS Executive Chairman, Dr. Zacch Adedeji, said this during a courtesy visit to the EFCC headquarters in Abuja. The newly signed Tax Acts will go into effect in January 2026. The new laws transform FIRS into the Nigerian Revenue Service………(Read More) NGX extends gains with N254bn uptick – The Nigerian Exchange on Tuesday sustained its positive momentum as investors’ appetite for insurance and banking stocks lifted the market with a gain of N254bn, extending the bullish run recorded in the previous session. At the close of trading, the market capitalisation of listed equities rose to N88.5tn from N88.25tn recorded the previous day, reflecting the N254bn increase. The All-Share Index advanced by 401.36 points, or 0.29 per cent, to settle at 139,796.11 points………..(Read More)     The 5% Surcharge On Fuel: What Is True And What Is Not? – This note seeks to clarify matters arising regarding the 5% fuel surcharge in the new tax laws. The charge is not a new tax introduced by the current administration. The provision already exists under the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (Amendment) Act, 2007. Its restatement in the new Tax Act is for harmonisation and transparency rather than immediate implementation. We outline the frequently asked questions below and provide clarifying explanations………(Read More) No Tax ID, No Contracts, New Act Stipulates – The newly gazetted Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, has introduced fresh compliance requirements that tighten the fiscal net on contractors, government agencies, and foreign suppliers seeking business in the country. Under the law, Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) must ensure that all contractors and suppliers present a valid Tax Identification Number (Tax ID) before entering into or executing contracts. While the Act does not explicitly require contractors to present a valid Tax Identification Number (Tax ID) before..…..(Read More) Sovereign Trust Insurance insiders sell N2.3bn shares – Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc has disclosed multiple insider transactions involving directors and related parties who sold a combined volume of shares valued at over N2.3bn. The details of the transactions were contained in separate filings submitted to the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Tuesday, September 8, 2025. According to the disclosures, the company’s Non-Executive Director, Abimbola Oguntunde, sold 200m ordinary shares at N2.95 per share on September 4, 2025, amounting to N590m……..(Read More) Trump urges EU to impose 100% tariffs on China, India to pressure Putin, sources say – U.S. President Donald Trump urged EU officials on Tuesday to hit China with tariffs of up to 100% as part of a strategy to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a U.S. official and an EU diplomat. Trump also encouraged the European Union to slap India with similarly expansive tariffs, said the official, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations……(Read More)  

CFG AFRICA MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 09/09/2025

Naira appreciates at N1506 amidst reduced FX pressure – The Nigerian local currency, the naira, appreciated to N1,506 per dollar at the official window even as the nation’s foreign reserves reached $41.500 billion. This is according to the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) update released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), indicating spot rate settled at N1506.8433 per dollar at the official window on the first day of the week……..(Read More) Stock Market Investors Reap N262bn In New Trading Week– The Nigerian equities market, yesterday, began the trading week in a positive position as investors’ investments rose by N262 billion. Precisely, the All-Share Index up by 227.68 points, representing a gain of 0.24 per cent to close at 96,205.85 points. Also, market capitalization appreciated by N262 billion to close at N88.199 trillion. The upturn was driven by price appreciation in large and medium-capitalized stocks, including Transcorp Power, NASCON Allied Industries, Dangote Sugar Refinery, PZ Cussons Nigeria, and Cadbury Nigeria……….(Read More) TUC rejects 5% fuel surcharge, gives FG ultimatum – The leadership of Trade Union Congress (TUC), says has rejected the Federal Government’s planned 5 per cent tax on petroleum products, describing the proposal as “reckless and an act of economic wickedness. The Congress warned the government to withdraw the proposal within 14 days starting from today, saying it would not have any other option than to shut down critical sectors in the country if the government failed to do so……..(Read More) External Reserves Hit $41.5bn As NEFM Records $2.8bn Inflow – According to data by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gross reserves rose for the ninth consecutive week, recording a week-on-week increase of $232.11 million or 0.56 per cent to $41.499 billion as of September 3, 2025, compared to $41.2267 billion, which it closed last month. The naira appreciated by 1.01 per cent last week, and analysts project that the upward momentum will be sustained. Steady reserve accretion provides a vital buffer against external shocks, particularly oil price volatility and speculative pressures..…..(Read More) Foreign portfolio inflow up 354% to N609.73bn in 3yrs – The Foreign Portfolio inflow on the Nigerian stock market has increased by 354.4 % to N609.73 billion in seven months of 2025 (7M’25) against N134.19 billion in seven months of 2022(7M’22). The domestic and foreign transactions report released by the Nigerian Exchange Limited, NGX showed that foreign outflow increased by 382.2% to N671.56billion in 7M’25 from N138.97 billion in 7M’22. Meanwhile, the total foreign flows (Inflow and outflow) increased by 369.2% to N1.281trillion in 7M’25 against N273.16 billion in 7M’22.  A further analysis shows that total transactions at the nation’s bourse increased significantly by 240.8% to N6.008 trillion in 7M’25 from N1.763 trillion in 7M’22…….(Read More) Dollar hits 7-week low as jobs gloom heightens Fed cut chances – The dollar sank to an almost seven-week low on Tuesday as investors braced for U.S. data revisions that could show the jobs market in worse shape than initially thought, shoring up the case for even deeper Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The dollar index fell to lows of 97.323 in Asia trade, representing the weakest level for the greenback since July 24, ahead of the release of preliminary benchmark revisions, opens new tab for jobs data covering the period from April 2024 to March 2025…..(Read More)

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